US mistakes in Ukraine Crisis and the containment of Russia
- By Zheng Yu
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 26, 2014
As for Russia, it cannot endure Western economic sanctions for long. (In the first quarter of 2014, even before Western sanctions set in, capital flight from Russia reached 60-70 billion US dollars, more than the total of 2013. The EU estimate is even higher at 200-220 billion US dollars.) The time will come for Moscow to consider some concessions: greater local autonomy in eastern and southern Ukraine in exchange for Russia’s special place in the external economic ties of these pro-Russia regions. Moreover, Russia’s significant leverage in the energy sector and the equities it holds in Ukraine’s financial sector and real economy will ensure its continuing influence in Ukraine even after the crisis ends.
On the other hand, the current crisis has taught the US and other Western countries how central the issue of Ukraine is in the eyes of Russia. Should Ukraine join NATO, it would put Washington and Moscow in an intense and sustained military confrontation, a scenario that would greatly restrain US freedom of maneuver around the world. So the US is potentially also amenable to the neutrality of Ukraine, since it would meet its fundamental objective: preventing Ukraine from joining the Eurasian Union. The EU, needless to say, is more ready to embrace a neutral Ukraine.
On 4 March, the Pentagon released The Quadrennial Defense Review, which stressed, “US interests remain inextricably linked to the peace and security of the Asia-Pacific region. The Department [of Defense] is committed to implementing the President’s objective of rebalancing US engagement toward this critical region.” The US will not back away from its strategic decision to devote more resources to counter China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific. Its deep involvement in the Ukraine crisis suggests that in its view, a Russia-dominated supra-national union without Ukraine is not in a position to shake the political and security landscape of Eastern Europe.
In the first half of this year, the US began to deploy more military assets to Eastern Europe. This, coupled with the second-phase implementation of the missile defense program in Europe to be expected in 2015, precludes any chance of a thaw in US-Russia relations even after the Ukraine crisis passes off. But in the longer term, the closer ties being built between China and Russia will prompt Washington and Moscow to “agree to disagree” on certain issues and embrace deeper cooperation in more areas.
Zheng Yu is a Professor at the Institute of Russian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
This article was first published at Chinausfocus.com To see the original version please visit http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-ukraine-crisis-and-us-russia-relations-2/
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