The West will lose out if it refuses cooperation
- By Song Luzheng
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E-mail China.org.cn, September 8, 2014
The rise of China could be regarded as the most important geopolitical event in the second half of the 20th century. Although China experienced periodical rises and falls throughout its history, the current rise does seem different in that it is not only changing the country itself, but also having significant impact on the entire world.
In general, the developed powers in the West tend to treat China's rise as an unprecedented challenge whereas its fellow developing countries see it more as an opportunity for them.
The rise of the West over the past five centuries was mostly based on three pillars: monopoly of capital, monopoly of industrial products, and pricing power. But China's rise is now impeding further advance of these pillars. It has more lending capacity than the World Bank, Made-in-China products are decent but inexpensive, and China's need for raw materials raises the pricing power of the countries of origin.
Apart from economic challenges to the West, China is also experiencing a new development mode based on a different political institution, which is making the Capitalist West uneasy.
The West built its democratic systems based largely on the middle class, a social stratum whose influence started to wane some decades ago. The U.S. scholar Francis Fukuyama has pointed out that, in 1974, the 1 percent of most wealthy families in the United States held 9 percent of the country's GDP; however, the proportion rose to 23.5 percent in 2007. The advancement of science and technology, the progress of globalization are both causing the middle class to shrink, hence polarizing social wealth.
China and the United States have what are called "structural conflicts," in that Washington wishes to dominate the world for at least another one century, while Beijing is not prepared to be pushed around β meaning there has to be a winner.
Western academics generally believe growth driven by consumer borrowing and high welfare based on debt is increasingly difficult to maintain, a situation demanding social reforms. However, the rise of China has made inexpensive industrial products possible; at the same time, its trade surplus flows back to the West in the form of treasury debt. This cycle, paradoxically, postponed the outbreak of social conflict until the financial crisis in 2008.
This is how the rise of China will mean more competition than cooperation and more challenge than opportunities to the West. Yet, for the same reason, China's rise represents a chance for the developing countries to understand that a different development mode could be a positive trend.
Before 2008, China and the West did achieve a win-win situation to a certain extent. Chinese industrial products lowered Western living costs while their export stimulated China's growth. Earlier, when China started its reform and opening-up, Western capital and technology helped Chinese industries to develop, and in exchange, the West found new markets and a new place for industrial transfer.
But such win-win cooperation was not able to continue after 2008, when China's success started to have more profound economic impact. In the changed circumstances, the West and China need to find a new way to achieve win-win results.
However, this has to be based on two preconditions:
First, the West has to understand its political institutions cannot be implanted in China; the latter will continue with its proven-successful development pattern different from the West. If the West cannot accept this, or seeks to impose its ideology on China, conflict will be inevitable.
Second, China has to show through actions that its rise will be different than that of Japan or Germany in the past, meaning it will not seek to challenge or even overturn the current international order. Participation and sharing are China's objectives.
Judged from the current situation, the West needs to make more effort in this regard, avoiding any attempt to export its values and ideology. The recent dispute in Hong Kong over universal suffrage is such an example.
Even though China has risen to be the second largest economy, and is active in many forums such as BRICS, it still fails to obtain equal discourse power with the West. This is not surprising because the latter is not ready to share rights and obligations with the emerging powers including China.
Politically, Barack Obama is shifting his strategy to Asia-Pacific. The United States now stands with Japan, the Philippines and its old enemy Vietnam in a bid to contain China on territorial issues in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
In seeking a win-win result with China, Western countries should reform themselves. The European Union represents 9 percent of world's population, and a quarter of global GDP, but has half of the world's spending on social welfare. Similarly in the United States, 5 percent of world's population is consuming 25 percent of global energy.
It is fair to say such development is unfair to other countries, besides being unsustainable.
The West is fundamentally to blame for its own recessions and cannot blame anyone in the developing world. To revert this downward trend, the shift of policies has to be accompanied with the changes of lifestyle, and perhaps revision of political institutions, since no voter will accept a cut in social welfare or energy consumption individually.
By the same token, a win-win result is impossible without China's contribution. Changing the growth pattern, upgrading the economic structure, curbing pollution, encouraging consumption, and improving its social security system are still aspects that are being worked on.
Once China completes its reform targets, its own development will feature better balance and sustainability, besides easing conflicts with the West. But to achieve this goal, opening-up and international exchanges are indispensable.
China's rise has changed the geopolitical pattern. The world is entering a fluctuating period of adjustment during which turmoil may occur. Both China and the West have to accept the fact, and treat the great historical transition in practical ways. Both sides need to solve their own internal problems, and reform the current international order. Only in this way is a win-win result possible.
The writer is a political scholar residing in France and research fellow at the Shanghai Chunqiu Institute.
The article was translated by Chen Boyuan. Its original version was published in Chinese.
Opinion articles reflect the author's own opinion, not necessarily that of China.org.cn.
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