Looking beyond the Modi-Sharif meeting in Ufa
- By Sajjad Malik
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 13, 2015
Despite the optimism, the meetings between the leaders of Pakistan and India have become all too familiar. They often meet on the fringes of multilateral settings and promise to address unresolved problems, but they cannot take any meaningful initiative due to domestic compulsions. Their chief problem lies in the "enemy narrative" that they have "carefully" nurtured over decades of bad blood since both gained independence from Britain in 1947.
The hawkish elements in both countries are not ready to mellow the rhetoric that is religiously issued from the two capitals. The two nations have also taken rigid positions on some bilateral issues and cannot budge an inch publicly without loss of face or popularity. For Pakistan, Kashmir should be at the top of the agenda in every meeting, while India considers terrorism as the number one issue. Margins for deviation from established practices are narrow.
For example, Nawaz Sharif was lambasted by opposition parties at home for failing to mention Kashmir in the joint statement issued after the Ufa meeting. It is a grim reminder of the meeting between Pakistan's then prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh in 2009 at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. A joint statement issued after this meeting listed alleged Indian interventions in Pakistan's southwestern province of Balochistan. Indian media and opposition leaders were up in arms and almost flayed Singh alive for allowing Balochistan to be mentioned in the statement. Consequently, Singh had to harden his position, and no follow-up meeting took place.
It is feared that failure to mention Kashmir in the Ufa statement may limit Sharif's and his government's flexibility in the upcoming meetings.
Relations beyond Ufa will likely remain tense but stable. In fact, as Sharif was meeting with Modi, back home in Pakistan, his finance minister Ishaq Dar was telling parliament that India was trying to destabilize Pakistan because it was not happy that Pakistan is making economic progress. Dar also threatened a "befitting response" in case of any aggression by India.
However, the redeeming factor is the inclusion of two rivals in the SCO, where China and Russia will have a sobering impact on them. Russia has a history of dealing with Pakistan-India disputes, having played host in 1966 to the arrangement of a deal called the Tashkent Agreement, which helped end hostilities and return areas which both countries had captured in war in 1965. China may also use its economic influence to help stabilize the India-Pakistan relationship, and it has already said that the two countries should resolve their differences peacefully. The SCO forum will also be helpful as it demands that its new members resolve bilateral differences.
The writer is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit: http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SajjadMalik.htm
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