A reasonable look at China's GDP (II)
- By Xia Changjiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, March 4, 2016
Local statistics
Some doubts arise over the statistics of local government. If you add the GDP number of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly the central government, you will find the result is bigger than that provided by the National Bureau of Statistics.
There are three reasons. First, the statistics of some areas, mostly county-level areas, may well be exaggerated. Second, there is repetition during data collection. For example, the headquarters and branches of large corporations may submit their statistics repeatedly. Third, local statistics might be more accurate, because the central authorities might omit some data. For example, the National Bureau of Statistics requires enterprises above designated size to submit data to it directly. Therefore, the data from some small enterprises might be omitted. In contrast, local authorities were able to collect data on a more thorough basis.
Given the above situation, the national GDP number developed by the National Bureau of Statistics was smaller than it really was. According to SNA2008, many items were not included into China's statistics. For example, in developed countries, data concerning illegal production activities, such as gambling and drug trafficking, have been collected when calculating GDP. So, if China follows SNA2008, its GDP should be even higher.
Xia Changjiang is a senior economist who used to participate in government statistics and economic research projects.
The article was translated by Chen Xia. Its unabridged version was published in Chinese.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
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