A question of orientation
- By Li Ziguo
0 Comment(s)
Print
E-mail Beijing Review, March 31, 2016
Dealing with the West
Russia's diplomacy remains focused on the lifting of sanctions against it. So far, Russia has made some headway in getting rid of its current dilemma, but serious work remains.
A major milestone is Russia's agreement to talks with the EU on the Ukraine issue. In February last year, Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine reached the Minsk Agreement through the four-party talks. Without U.S. involvement, the Ukraine crisis has cooled down and a final solution is expected. Solving the Ukraine crisis peacefully is the first step toward removal of Western sanctions.
As early as December 2014, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier had expressed that it was impossible to use economic measures to subdue Russia and economic isolation could backfire. The German Chamber of Commerce has also repeatedly called for the lifting of sanctions against Russia.
In January, French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron said that France would lift the sanctions against Russia as early as the summer if the Minsk Agreement could be implemented effectively. As a whole, the EU is expected to gradually lift the sanctions against Russia mid-year. While attending the Davos Forum in January, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also stated the possibility of sanction removal provided that the Minsk Agreement can be observed.
The direction of its compass
In July 2015, Russia hosted two summits in Ufa: the summit of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries and that of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In recent years, Russia has been working to enhance its partnership with emerging economies through both bilateral and multilateral means.
Among all of Russia's partners, China's importance is growing rapidly and there is vast potential for increased economic cooperation between the two. China is the world's second-largest economy and its overseas investments are escalating each year. Russia is also pivoting toward its eastern territories for economic expansion. Last year, Russia held the first Oriental Economic Forum in Vladivostok, a harbor city in east Russia, where it announced it will build a free port.
Although the trade volume between China and Russia decreased dramatically in 2015 to $63.6 billion, down 28.1 percent year on year, China remains Russia's largest trading partner and China's proportion of Russia's foreign trade increased.
Yet it is notable that Russia's economic redirection to the East was mainly because of the pressure from the West. Once the EU-Russia relationship improves, the development of the Far East region and its cooperation with non-Western countries might be postponed.
The author is deputy director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies, China Institute of International Studies
Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)