Will Red Shirts' 'true blood' change Thai political stalemate?
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The key challenge is to keep the current rally going on as the government stood their ground. However, the Red Shirts movement, due to an insufficient number of masses, a lack of clear strategy, and a display of hesitation to turn up the pressure -- as they are afraid of making similar mistake as in last year's violence protest that lost the support of majority silent population in the capital -- did not strengthen themselves but the government.
Furthermore, the timing is not so much favorable for the Red Shirts to stage a anti-government rally as Thailand's economy is improving in line with the recovery of the global economy. Unlike last year, many people in Bangkok are not joining this Red Shirts rally because for them there is no pressing reason to force a change in regime.
As such, the street protest is not expected to yield the level of pressure that can trigger the government to lose its temper.
Political scenario: prolonged impasse
Although having faced many challenges since he came into office more than a year ago, Prime Minister Abhisit continued to enjoy the backing of the ruling class, including the elites.
The military also throws their weight behind the loosely-bind coalition government. Under the Internal Security Act, which was invoked prior to the mass protest, the Army mobilized forces from 1st, 2nd and 3rd Army to protect key personnel and installation in the capital.
It is a completely different position as seen during previous Samak and Somchai's administrations, which, before being dissolved, used to undergo constant protests by the anti-Thaksin movement Yellow Shirts.
Prime Minister Abhisit also has the support of Thailand's mainstream media that carry the pro-government tune and propaganda. As such, the center of gravity of the government remains in position.
A shift in balance of power in the parliament, a desired outcome of the Red Shirts, can only take place when the minor coalition parties decided to abandon the Democrat for self-serving interest. According to Guo Jinsheng, a political & security analyst based in Bangkok, this scenario is not a remote possibility although at this juncture, it seems that the minor political parties in the coalition continue to stand by the Democrat.
As the government needs to call for election, at the latest by the end 2011, the political parties and interest groups are carefully watching the political development before they take sides to fulfill their own purposes.
That's why Thaksin, during the video link last night to the rally, urged the minor political parties to abandon the Democrat party or prepare to lose the next election.
Many political observers believed that intense back-room trading and negotiation is taking place.
In conclusion, a prolonged stalemate will continue in Thailand' s political landscape in the near term until such time Thai political power groups can co-exist and adhere to an acceptable political system.
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