Rampant violence questions Iraq's security as U.S. pullout
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Politics is behind the attacks
Many local analysts believe that despite the terrorism and insurgents who are exploiting the sectarian-charged postwar atmosphere, the ongoing political infighting is also behind the upgrade of the violence.
"I believe that the increase of violence is not only targeting the U.S. military plans to pull out from Iraq, sometimes major attacks are part of the bitter political struggle between the Iraqi factions over power," Ibrahim al-Ameri, a political professor in Baghdad University, told Xinhua in an interview.
"In my opinion, the security is deteriorating day after day as we are coming closer to the August 31 deadline of the U.S. combat troops' withdrawal," Ameri said.
"The most important factor that would affect the security situation in Iraq after the U.S. combat troops departure is the political progress when the politicians can reach an agreement about a new government," he said.
"The security deterioration will increase as we are coming closer to the August 31 deadline and after it, because both Shiite and Sunni militias will be encouraged to hit the fragile Iraqi security forces, though not to the levels of 2006-2007 chaos. But let us hope that things will be better after the formation of the next government," he said.
"When you don't have tangible political stability, you can't get tangible security improvement," Ameri added.
Dr. Hani, for his part, is of the same opinion on the political factor behind the attacks. "The recent increase of violence is attributed to political vacuum which delays forming a new government. The militant groups are using the current circumstance to move their sleeping cells, especially after the departure of the U.S. troops."
Iraqis are not ready
Although the top U.S. commander and high-ranking officials reiterated their confidence in Iraqi security force, saying that Iraqis are ready and able to take over security operations on their own, the latest wave of attacks and the mounting casualties indicated an obvious opposite trend.
"The United States will keep 50,000 soldiers in Iraq until the end of 2011 for training Iraqis, this is a confession from the Americans that the Iraqi security forces are not totally ready to take over the security responsibility," said Dr. Hani, adding that "it means violence in Iraq will not end soon."
"However, that doesn't mean that the presence of U.S. troops is the main guarantee for security in Iraq, no, we believe that strong security forces, national reconciliation and less division over the power in the country is the right way for security improvement and stability," he said.
Ameri, however, expressed a limited optimism upon the security situation after the pullout of U.S. combat troops.
"Despite recent bloody attacks, the violence in Iraq are far less than the period when sectarian killings culminated in 2006- 2007, therefore, I can perceive that till now the Americans showed no evident sign that they are going to change their withdrawal plans," Ameri said.
"I think there would be no significant change in the Iraqi security situations after the August 31 combat troops' pullout, because the remaining 50,000 U.S. soldiers are still capable to do various missions, not only training Iraqi forces, they also carry out counterterrorism missions," he said, adding that the Iraqi security forces are still not capable of dealing with such levels of violence.
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