Last-minute hitch before Palestinians, Israelis launch direct talks
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Clear differences
From the Israeli perspective there is a feeling that the Palestinians want to achieve as much as possible before entering talks, according to Mordechai Kedar of the Arabic studies department at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
He thinks the Palestinians fear that once they are sitting around a table with their Israeli interlocutors they will not be able to make substantial gains regarding refugees, borders, settlements and Jerusalem, the so-called core issues.
"The Palestinians cannot countenance relinquishing on these issues nationally, emotionally or politically," Kedar said on Tuesday.
That is arguably why the Palestinians have spent the last few months making various suggestions for preconditions to talks. The one that may have provided the Palestinians with the most room for optimism was that the talks pick up where they left off almost two years ago when Ehud Olmert was Israel's prime minister.
It is understood that the chief Palestinian and Israeli negotiators at that time, Ahmed Qurei and Tzipi Livni respectively, had made significant progress on most of the key issues. They had perhaps gone farther than the Netanyahu government would be prepared to travel now. As a result Netanyahu flatly rejected continuing from the point the sides had reached in 2008.
Hillel Schenker, co-editor of the Palestine-Israel Journal, views the Palestinian and Israeli positions somewhat differently. He sees the Palestinians as having thus far given American envoy George Mitchell a detailed account of their demands and expectations. At the same time, he says, the Israelis have not been forthcoming.
However, despite the clear differences between the parties, Schenker believes the talks will begin imminently. The question he asks, as do all those concerned with the situation, is whether they will produce positive results.
Little hope; depends on third parties
Even if the talks do begin, whether it is in the next few days or in the coming weeks, few expect them to bear fruits, including the principals, according to Kedar. Even the U.S., which has been the key party in bringing the sides together, is less than optimistic about the chances for a successful conclusion.
"The Americans want the appearance of talks. (President Barack) Obama is headed for elections and wants to see some progress," said Kedar.
The Obama team has little to show in the way of accomplishments in terms of foreign policy with Iraq and Afghanistan proving to be major headaches, he said. Even a handshake and no real substance would suit Obama in the run up to the November mid-terms.
However, in practical terms Kedar sees no chance of success in the negotiations. Schenker though argues that their fate depends on the third parties involved, that means the Quartet and in particular Washington.
While he does not minimize the significance of the congressional elections, he points out that whether Obama comes out the other side of November stronger or weaker he will still be the president for the next two years. While 2012 will be lost because of the campaigning ahead of the presidential elections, Schenker argues that Obama will still have all of next year to stamp his mark on the peace process.
Schenker, though, issues a warning to the peace brokers that once the talks begin their success must be ensured.
"If they fail it will be a tremendous blow to the leaders of the Palestinian Authority and (Abbas' party) Fatah in their struggle with Hamas. The Americans and probably Netanyahu realize that the talks have to bear fruit. I am just not sure to what extent Netanyahu is prepared to put that into policy, he said."
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