Protests in Iran unlikely to bring about regime change
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Different cultures
Eldad Prado from the Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told Xinhua that there are significant cultural differences between the two countries, in addition to the political ones.
In Iran, the protests began in June 2009 and went on to get pretty aggressive as a mass movement all the way until December. But they died out due the extremely harsh and cruel reaction by the government, Prado said.
"The similarities between the situations in Iran and Egypt are that these movements are led by young people informed with Western values of democracy," Prado said.
"The political culture in Egypt is different from that of Iran, " Prado said, adding that "Iran has a culture that focuses on martyrdom."
"In Iran, the slogan is 'death to the dictator,' while in Egypt, the slogans is 'the people want the regime to fall,'" Prado added.
Dissimilar protests
Ze'ev Maghen from the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, said he believed that the numerous demonstrations across the Middle East have had an effect on reviving the Green Movement in Iran, which had been silent since the post-election demonstrations.
"In Iran, everyone is claiming the events in Tunisia and Egypt as their own," Maghen said. He said that both the government and the demonstrations have used the developments as an argument to prove their points.
The regime arguing that the demonstrations were inspired by the Islamic Revolution in 1979 while the pro-democracy movement, on the other hand, said that the revolts were sparked by a desire for freedom, he said.
While acknowledging Bar's view that the different responses of the armed forces played a role in how the protests developed, Maghen said that if Iranian protests developed to the extent it did in Egypt, most of the armies will eventually back down.
Maghen said there are also differences in how the regimes claim their legitimacy and authority in each country. "Mubarak doesn't have a religious claim, nor a democratic one."
"The Iranian leadership makes both of those claims. So it's much harder to rise up against them," Maghen added.
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