Israel sees benefits from Mideast turmoil
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After the overthrow of the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, mass anti-government protests erupted across the Middle East.
Analysts told Xinhua that the recent turmoil in the region seems to be bad news for Israel at first glance, but in the long term the situation could work to its advantage.
New reality
The single most important event from an Israeli point of view over the last month was the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who was viewed as a strong ally during his 30-year rule.
However, the fear in Israel is that the departure of Mubarak would lead to the Muslim Brotherhood taking over and annulling the peace agreement with Israel. So far, that hasn't happened, since the army is currently running the country.
In the short term, Egypt might have to cope with instability, which would sharply limit its ability to wage war against Israel.
In the long run, even though the Muslim Brotherhood might end up leading Egypt, few pundits foresee a war between the two countries. Additionally, here is no conflict over territory as the Sinai Peninsula was returned in 1979 as part of the Camp David peace treaty.
However, the absence of war is not the same as peace, according to Dr. Dan Schueftan, deputy director of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa.
"Even if it does not come to a point where the peace treaty is abolished and the wars starts, from an Israeli point of view you have to be prepared for a situation that this can happen," Schueftan said, noting that even if this scenario is unlikely in the near future, Israel should start sooner to prepare for it as the preparations may take years.
Such preparations would be both a strain on Israel's defense budget and an adjustment of the country's strategic thinking on military options and political agreements in the region, according to Schueftan.
"Because if until now Israel could assume that the Egyptian front would be quiet, Israel can no longer assume it," Schueftan said.
However, if after twenty years of struggle, the Muslim Brotherhood finally has a chance to take power in Egypt, it's unlikely that they would risk hard-earned gains by warring with their neighbor to the east.
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