The impact of the Olympic Games on Beijing's real estate market will be lasting and positive as infrastructure expansion creates new commercial areas and supports the development of suburban residential hubs.
Furthermore, efforts to improve the environment are making Beijing a more comfortable place to live and conduct business in.
These conclusions were made in a White Paper titled Accelerating Toward a New Beijing by Jones Lang LaSalle, a global professional services firm that specializes in real estate. The paper examined how the Games would drive the transformation of Beijing.
Since Beijing won the Olympic Games bid in 2001, approximately $41 billion has been budgeted for the city's transformation, and a substantial portion of this has been invested in improving the environment and expanding infrastructure.
The aim of these investments is to change Beijing permanently and positively, and prepare the city for continued economic and population growth, according to David Hand, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle Beijing.
Some analysts have said it is possible Beijing will see a downturn in its real estate market after the Games. "The reality, however, is that there is little direct correlation between the event and the key demand drivers that underpin Beijing's property growth," said Hand.
According to Ben Christensen, head of research for Jones Lang LaSalle Beijing, the government, as part of its efforts to improve Beijing's development landscape, facilitated the completion of a large amount of new, high-quality spaces in key commercial areas through investment and construction approvals.
This has led to a substantial expansion in the high-end retail, office and residential sectors, which is a very positive development for the city.
"Almost inevitably, however, this will likely put slight downward pressure on rents in the period directly following the Games. Demand drivers supporting this development will continue to grow: Beijing is an increasingly critical location for office occupiers as they expand their presence in China; the demographics and consumer sentiment supporting the rapid development of the luxury retail market are expected to continue improving; and residential projects will likely continue to enjoy strong demand from both end-users and investors," he said.
Market absorption
Christensen added that these demand factors have little direct correlation with the Games and are expected to underpin strong absorption across all sectors of the Beijing property market in the medium to long term.
In 2007 and 2008, Beijing's high-end property market has been undergoing a dramatic expansion as the total office, retail and residential space is anticipated to grow by 52 percent, 89 percent and 58 percent respectively.
The report said it is important to keep in mind that this expansion is building on a relatively small base at the top end of the market and that the figures represent the high end of the market as opposed to the mass market.
The increase is, nonetheless, substantial and is expected to lead to temporary oversupply conditions in the months following the Games. This impact will be short-term as anticipated strong demand is likely to absorb residual vacant spaces in 2010 and 2011 when new supply is expected to slacken.
Importantly, from a long-term perspective, during this ongoing increase in property supply, several key themes, such as high-quality property, unexpected by strong demand and a large consumer base, have emerged.
Prior to 2007, Beijing suffered from a shortage of international-standard office and retail space, so some large office space occupiers and retailers were forced to adjust their Beijing expansion plans.
