China, the world's biggest corn producer after the US, may harvest less of the grain this year than estimated a month ago, the state-affiliated forecaster China National Grain and Oils Information Center said.

 

Output may rise 1.73 percent from a year earlier to 148 million metric tons, one million tons less than forecast last month, the center said yesterday.

 

Droughts in spring and summer reduced crop yields in China's northeastern provinces, the country's top growing region for the grain. The trimmed forecast comes as livestock feed demand may surge as increased pork prices cause hog farmers to boost output, analysts, including Zhao Qiang at Tianqi Futures Co, said.

 

"We have been exhausting the stockpiles, so supply will be very tight next year," Harbin-based Zhao told Bloomberg News. "But given the current prices, no one wants to buy US corn to supplement because domestic supplies still cost much less."

 

Benchmark corn futures, traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, rose as much as 1.1 percent to 1,783 yuan (US$240) a ton, and traded at 1,773 yuan at the 11:30am local time break. They have gained seven percent in the past six months.

 

Corn shipped to China from the US costs about 2,000 yuan a ton on arrival, while domestic prices are about 1,700 yuan, Zhao said. China will issue 7.2 million tons of import quotas to qualified firms next year, the government said on October 9.

 

Domestic corn prices may have limited room to rise because feed producers can use wheat or rice to substitute, said Guo Huiyong, Beijing-based feed analyst at Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd.

 

The country's corn plantings may have risen four percent to a record 28.1 million hectares this year, the Grain and Oils Information Center said.

 

Production of wheat may rise 1.48 percent from last year to 106 million tons, also one million tons less than an estimate in October, as the spring crop was reduced by drought, the center said.

 

(Shanghai Daily November 8, 2007)