US 2016 election is a global risk
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 15, 2016
Currently, the leading Democratic presidential candidates, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, are approaching the final showdown. Concurrently, the Republican establishment - including Senate's majority leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan- is struggling to undermine the real estate mogul Donald Trump's campaign by promoting Senator Ted Cruz, Governor Kasich and less-known 'dark horses.'
After Wisconsin and New York, the leading contenders seek to consolidate their lead in the remaining delegate-rich states, including Pennsylvania in April and California and New Jersey in May.
Until November, US media will be all about presidential elections, which is financially vital to the 'bottom line' of the news organisations and media networks that financially rely increasingly on the expensive political media campaigns. As investigative journalism is largely dead, American democracy is increasingly threatened by big money, which now makes and breaks media buys, candidate campaigns and brokered conventions.
Americans' trust gap with Washington
In the past few months, Brazil's political turmoil has filled international headlines. According to Gallup, only 15% of Brazilians approve of the performance of their political leaders. What remains less understood is that about as few or fewer Americans approve of the job of the Congress. In the US, the trust in the national leadership is at record low.
Politically, Americans are fed up. According to polls, two out of every three are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, while most Democrats and Republicans believe that their party no longer cares about the middle class. As a result, most will vote on the basis of domestic issues (economy, jobs, immigration, and health care).
Intriguingly, polls also suggest that, if elections were held today and determined by votes alone, Wall Street's favorite Democrat, Hillary Clinton would beat Trump, possibly Cruz but would lose to Governor John Kasich. Even more intriguingly, the self-declared democratic socialist Bernie Sanders would beat Trump, Cruz and Kasich each and all.
However, US elections are increasingly about campaign financing and - after recent legislative changes (including the 2010 Citizens United v. FEC) that have made possible the ever-larger presence of big corporate donors - about big, very big money. A couple of years ago, some observers used to criticise the role of political action committees (PACs) in the US elections. Today, that's so passé.
At the moment, current candidates have raised an estimated $620 million, whereas the so-called super PACs, which first emerged in 2012 campaigns, have already raised more than $410 million - some 40% of the total. Technically, super PACs are independent political committees. Yet, they can support a candidate with unlimited, often anonymous donations from corporations, unions, associations or individuals.
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