US 2016 election is a global risk
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 15, 2016
US-EU economic, political and defense cooperation challenged
In the United States, the candidates' tentative policy positions are often compared in a set of key issues, which typically include China, trade, defense, energy and climate, immigration, Iran, national security, Islamic State, Russia, North Korea, even Cuba; but not necessarily Europe. The most obvious reason is the fact that the interests and values of Europe, along with Japan's, are usually seen close, if not identical, to those of America. In the past, the perception was valid; today, it is contested.
These frictions go far beyond the current EU-US visa fiasco based on legal deadlines and different views on security requirements and visa-waivers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Since the postwar Marshall Plan and the creation of the North American Treaty Organization (NATO), US-EU relations have been characterised by extraordinarily close economic, political and security cooperation. Moreover, EU-US merchandise trade climbed to more than $700 billion in 2014, double the level of 2000. The transatlantic economy for over half of world GDP in terms of value and 40% in terms of purchasing power. The US and Europe are each other's primary source and destination for foreign direct investment.
Nevertheless, the eclipse of the Cold War has given rise to a set of bilateral conflicts in trade and investment that go beyond longstanding economic disagreements (e.g., Boeing and Airbus subsidies, genetically modified food, US steel tariffs), socio-political issues (e.g., death penalty, International Criminal Court, climate change, privacy and cyber security), not to speak of recent periods of outright political clashes (e.g., President George W. Bush, US preemptive national security doctrine, and Iraq War). Typically, President Obama has achieved the Trans-Pacific Trade agreement (TPP) in Asia but the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) with Europe has proved far more complicated.
Senator Clinton's assertive defense platform precipitates political time bombs in US-EU relations. In Europe, she is still seen through the nostalgic aura of the Clinton-Gore years when the transatlantic relations were perceived as steady (although even then Bill Clinton used Tony Blair to occasionally play London against Brussels or to benefit from frictions within the EU). What followed was much worse. Under the George W. Bush administration, America's imperial dreams alienated much of the world, while Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld capitalised on the differences between the 'Old' and 'New' Europe.
In his past two terms, President Obama has tried to keep the neoconservatives in check by compromising in several areas (e.g., war against terror, containment against China) but holding his own in others (e.g., Iran, defense budget constraints). In contrast, Clinton likes to keep neoconservatives close, including Dick Cheney's foreign policy adviser Victoria Nuland who has played a central role as the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the US State Department; and as the US point person for the Ukraine crisis. In February 2014, a leaked phone call between Nuland and US ambassador to Ukraine indicated that she wanted to use the UN as mediator instead of the European Union (EU), adding "F-ck the EU." She has sought regime changes in Eastern Europe and Ukraine and cooperation with rehabilitated neo-fascist militias.
Nuland's husband is Robert Kagan, a leading neoconservative and the co-founder with William Kristol of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century. With founding members, such as Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz, it served as a think-tank for the advocates of the American Empire. Clinton has flirted with the kind of "dangerous containment" that Kagan outlined in the late 1990s. It is designed not to engage but to confront China - with any means necessary.
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