US 2016 election is a global risk
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 15, 2016
Foreign money is increasingly at play in US elections. When the Panama Papers recently turned a spotlight on global tax evasion, the Swiss bank UBS was estimated to have hidden around $14-$25 billion for wealthy French citizens. After a US fine of $780 million in 2009, a new tax evasion case on UBS was launched by American authorities last year. Yet, UBS Americas, its US subsidiary, has directed more money to Congress through its political committee than the counterparts of other foreign companies; almost $1 million. That's peanuts for tax evaders, but manna from heaven to political candidates.
Currently, super PACs account for almost half of the campaign financing of Cruz and Kasich, respectively, and more than a third of Clinton's. By the end of March, the three got $240 million from election committees, but $130 million from largely conservative big donors. Despite her frequent criticisms of big money, Clinton enjoys floods of funds not just from the elite club of Democratic megadonors, including billionaire financiers George Soros and Haim Saban, but millions of dollars from corporations, unions and dark money nonprofits. Her fund-raising events have also hosted top flip-flop financial regulators who have joined Wall Street (Julie Chon, Gary Gensler, Bob Heckart, Sherrod Brown, Carl Levin and so on). Additionally, she has received almost $5 million from the fossil fuel industry that she likes to condemn for environmental pollution.
Meanwhile, the controversial and ultra-conservative Koch brothers are considering a $900 million investment into presidential and congress races - some of which would go against Trump.
In US presidential election, money makes winners. By late March, Clinton had raised $225 million. To the surprise of her Wall Street donors, Sanders had garnered almost $200 million, even though his funding stems mainly from ordinary Americans. In turn, Trump has raised only $37 million because he knows how to sell media bites without having to buy media time. And when the real game begins, he has millions to burn.
After Wisconsin but before New York, Trump had more than 740 candidates of the 1,237 delegates needed for nomination, against Cruz (545) and Kasich (143). Some 867 delegates are still available. In practice, Trump is unlikely to win nomination in the first round, while both Cruz and Trump hope for a contested convention that would allow them to benefit from the Republican establishment's "stop the Trump" campaign. While Cruz sees himself as the ultimate dark horse, he remains a Tea Party favourite and is not the establishment's unqualified choice, whereas Kasich is more 'acceptable', but less popular. As a result, Republicans are heading toward a showdown, which could bump Trump, make a Tea Party favorite its leader, choose Kasich - or somebody else - and risk the splintering of the party itself.
Among the Democrats, Clinton has 1,756 delegates of 2,383 needed for nomination, against Sanders (1,068). In addition to these pledged candidates, she is said to have almost 470 so-called super-delegates who can support any candidate, whereas Sanders has barely 31 of them. Yet, some 1,941 delegates are still available. According to critics, the role of the super-delegates can undermine the democratic process because they are seen to be "for sale".
But how would the next president deal with economy and international affairs?
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