US 2016 election is a global risk
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 15, 2016
To benefit from Asia's growth potential, President Obama negotiated the TPP agreement, which Clinton supported and called a "gold standard" deal as Secretary of State. To deter Sanders, she has condemned the TPP but is likely to 'adjust' her views in the end. That's what Wall Street wants.
While neoconservative positions are not usually associated with Hillary Clinton, her track record of tough foreign policy goes back to her student years ( before meeting Bill Clinton and her Democratic transformation). In 1964, she was active in politics but not for Lyndon Johnson and the war against poverty. Instead, she supported Barry Goldwater who was willing to use nuclear weapons against the Soviet Union.
Hot July, tumultuous fall
As state primaries end in May, all eyes will focus on the dominant candidates' vice-presidential nominees, policy advisors and platforms. Depending on the outcome of the primaries, the Democratic convention in Philadelphia and its Republican counterpart in Cleveland amidst the hottest July will either feature a show of political unity, or a contested convention that has potential to overwhelm the Kardashians' reality-show ratings.
To win the Democratic nomination, Clinton needs to coopt Sanders' progressive constituencies, while courting Trump's resentful white base and Wall Street's masters of the universe. That's a balancing act that may please her big donors but not her constituencies. At the same time, Bill Clinton got into trouble with Black Lives Matter activists for his mass incarceration policies that Hillary Clinton has defended. As progressive Democrats, such as Robert Reich and Nina Turner, have joined Sanders who is also supported as Commander-in-Chief by Tulsi Gabbard, a Hawaii congresswoman, Iraq veteran, and rising Democratic star.
Among Republicans, the Bush dynasty operative and veteran adviser Karl Rove has warned that Trump's nomination would be a "catastrophe," even as Senate's Majority leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan struggle to undermine Trump's delegate support. While Ryan has tried to quash speculation about his candidacy, a number of other 'dark horses' could surface. Cruz has rejected Trump's claims that the Republican delegate system is "rigged," while Kasich has targeted both Cruz and Trump for "path to darkness."
The Republican establishment loves Trump's "America First" idea, but would like to bury Trump himself. To them, Cruz is too much about the Tea Party; to Tea Party, Kasich is too much about the establishment. Left unmanaged, these divisions are a recipe to acrimonious internal friction in July and the autumn. The same goes for the Democrat's centrifugal internal pressures.
If the Republican establishment and the Trump constituencies cannot find adequate consensus and if Sanders' progressive coalition confronts Clinton, America can prepare for political turmoil as at the turn of the 1970s when violent political protest can no longer be discounted.
The US presidential election occurs amid historical economic stagnation, political polarisation and several military conflicts around the world. Through US global engagements, these polarisations are likely to spill over across the world. Due to decades of deep economic, political and strategic ties, Europe will be least immune to the consequences.
Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognised expert of the nascent multipolar world. He is the CEO of Difference Group and has served as Research Director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). For more, see www.differencegroup.net
The original was released by The World Financial Review on April 14, 2016
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